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Prediction for CME (2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-08T05:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43816/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This event is more narrow as observed by STEREO A COR2 imagery, while a wider feature is observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is an eruption and C4.4 flare from Active Region 14334 (S18E05) starting around 2026-01-08T05:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. Ejecta can be observed deflecting southeast of the eruption site, possibly due to a nearby coronal hole west of AR 14334. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was likely swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME: CME: 2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. It is possible that this shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T05:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60109
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Jan 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 026 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 040

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Coronal mass ejections:[...]
Further analysis of the faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 620), observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 06:24 UTC on January 8 and directed toward the southeast from Earthâs perspective, indicates that the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but a glancing blow cannot be excluded late on January 10.

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Lead Time: 33.28 hour(s)
Difference: 1.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-09T10:19Z

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